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Through the deep shuffle led industry ushered in a boom inflection point
- Jan 16, 2018 -

LED industry in the past 2015 years and 2016 after the depth of the shuffle, will usher in a boom inflection point, in lighting, small spacing display, such as new applications driven by the industry is expected to open a new round of growth.


In terms of the LED industry cycle, after 2015 years and 2016 of the deep shuffle, the supply side reform has been relatively full, led industry has been in the S-type industry curve of the second wavelength of cattle open: from the LED upstream supply, industry capacity concentration accelerated, and formed a higher industry barriers to curb disorderly capacity expansion At the same time, the continuous application of innovation to drive the development of the entire industrial chain, throughout the LED industry, landscape lighting, LCD backlight, outdoor lighting, outdoor large screen display applications in different stages to become the industry's rapid development of the driving force. Standing at the current point of view, LED lighting penetration rate, LED lighting intelligent networking, and small spacing display accelerated explosion, is becoming a new round of LED industry demand for the main driving force.


China's chip products are moving to the world, foreign chip taps will be part of the product orders to domestic enterprises processing, data shows that 2016 domestic chip exports accounted for the domestic chip output of 9.6%, the 15 increase of 1.6%. 2016 chip output grew by more than 10%.


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Supply side: 2016 led upstream supply side reform full, concentration of accelerated promotion

LED industry chain supply side reform has been relatively adequate, according to data shows that "2015 has more than 20%, about 4,000 led enterprises to exit the market." Take the chip enterprise as an example, according to the data shows, 2014 years ago 5 Big Top five chip enterprise market share has risen to more than 67%, is expected to surpass 70% in 2016.


According to industry insiders, after a round of shuffling, the government subsidy target has changed: At present only to those who can become the leading enterprises to subsidize, subsidies have narrowed, some small and medium-sized enterprises are less likely to take subsidies. After the 2015-year subsidy has been abolished, the investment in the new production line machine has increased enormously, and many small businesses will not be able to afford it.


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2016 international chip manufacturers have to reduce production capacity, or cancel expansion plans, domestic chip leading enterprises regional advantages continue to highlight. Crystal Power, Cree from the second half of 15 began several production cuts, by the beginning of 16 has accumulated production reduction of 25%, three in early 16 terminated 47 to Germany's MOCVD procurement contract, Samsung, LG shutdown part of the production capacity, the new century has been 2-3 years without expansion plan, not to join the new platform plan. At the same time, due to the Chinese government in 2015 to abolish the device MOCVD subsidy, new production line machine Taiwan's capital investment pressure highlighted, the domestic small and medium-sized chip manufacturers to expand the production impulse fell sharply.


Demand side: 2016 LED illumination penetration rate increases rapidly, wisdom illumination, small spacing detonation new hot spot.


2015 LED lighting penetration rate is only 27.2%, 2016 global LED lighting market continues to grow rapidly. From the downstream application, as the main led application direction of the general lighting market, the global 2015 permeability 27.2% (digitimes), the 2016 penetration rate is expected to exceed 31.3%, the global market size of 34.6 billion U.S., the 2017 penetration rate is expected to exceed 36%, The market is growing faster than 10%.


LED lighting is intelligent and networked, and the space is upgraded more than 1.3 times times. Philips said: Lighting value from the monomer to the interconnection of intelligent LED lighting systems and lighting services, the market space of up to 65 billion euros, compared with the 2015 global market 30 billion U.S. dollars, growth of 130%. Philips early in 2012 launched the Hue series of intelligent lighting products, the main time switch, theme transformation, application reminders and other human functions, with a good user experience. Obviously high. Therefore, the wisdom of lighting will be the first high-end home lighting market penetration, thereby improving the overall civil LED lighting penetration rate.


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The next 10 years LED light source will be expected to fully replace all traditional light sources. Due to the global LED lighting efficiency in the 130~150lm/w, the highest luminous efficiency has been developed 300lm/w, has been significantly higher than the traditional incandescent (15lm/w), halogen lamp (20lm/w), fluorescent lamps (85lm/w) and other traditional light source, with the continuous improvement of light efficiency, The cost of chips and other supplies has fallen, and the scale effect drives the overall overall cost of lighting down, and the next 10 years will be expected to replace all traditional light sources.


Small spacing LED display market is developing rapidly, the next 5 years industry composite growth of more than 24%. With the development of LED packaging technology, packaging device volume gradually narrowed, small spacing display from the outdoor into the interior, and gradually completed the existing DLP and LCD mosaic screen replacement, become a large screen display field another major killer application.


Strategic point of view: 2017 LED chip demand, optimistic about the future development of the industry


LED chips in 2017 production capacity of about 83.28 million pieces, demand about 92.35 million pieces. The overall LED chip industry is in a steady state of growth. Any industrial capacity is slightly higher than demand is the steady state characteristics of supply and demand balance, and 2017 led demand still has 12.5% stable growth, and supply is greater than demand, so the LED chip industry in short supply, industry performance is expected or will steadily increase.

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