The following will be from the automobile sales trend, automotive LED market output value and penetration rate, China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy, mainstream automotive lighting product design trends, major international and Chinese led manufacturers in the automotive field of the development of five aspects to explain in detail.
Global auto sales slow in second half of 2018 as trade friction affects In the global automotive market sales trend, in the first half of 2018, because of the relatively stable economic situation in various countries, so car sales showed a slow growth. But by the second half of 2018, trade frictions had led to uncertain or even downward economic conditions in many countries, and had also had a direct impact on the development of the global car market.
For example, countries such as the United States or Japan may experience a decline in sales. Ledinside expects the car's sales figures for the full year of 2018 to show a micro increase or remain stable.
Compared to the higher growth rate of 2016 and 2017, the 2018 auto market was indeed depressed. In terms of car sales in major countries, there is no doubt that China remains the world's largest, and sales growth in the first half of the year was around 4%, while sales growth slowed in the second half. But China's new energy passenger cars are now growing very fast, and some two or three-tier cities are promoting more.
It can also be observed that Chinese consumers have a strong willingness to buy Juhau car brands and some self-branded cars, so we think the Chinese market will still be the driving force behind the major growth in global car sales. In the United States, although the first half of sales still rose, but in the second half because of the negative impact of bank interest rates, gasoline prices, trade wars and so on, the forecast will show a downward trend.
Major European countries because the economic situation is relatively stable, so this year, the growth of new car registration is relatively stable, the first half of the car sales reached the highest in nearly 10 years.
In addition, emerging markets are growing rapidly, with India selling more than Germany in the first half of the year, the Brazilian market is growing very fast, with two countries growing by more than 10% per cent.
2019 China's automotive led output value growth steadily, medium and high power growth rate pulled higher Although the negative economic situation in 2018 has affected the sales of the car market, we expect that in 2019, with the continuation of Sino-US trade negotiations, coupled with the continued rise in China's demand for automobiles, the output value of Chinese automotive led growth is steady, 2019 year-on-year growth rate will exceed 20%, well above the global value.
Ledinside expects China's 2019-year car led to output more than $1 billion.
Logistics car subsidies are a similar trend, logistics vehicles are the largest reduction in subsidies in recent years, from 2017 to 2018, different power of the logistics car state subsidy decline is about 35% to 45%. Starting in the second half of 2018, the high mileage of new energy logistics vehicles has also become a major market growth driver, although the 2019 policy has not yet landed, but there is a saying that the state is likely to eliminate the purchase subsidy for new energy logistics vehicles, but it does not mean that there is no subsidy for logistics vehicles at all,
It is likely that operating subsidies will be used to replace past acquisition subsidies, that is, to support the sale of new energy logistics vehicles from the corporate and operational end. In summary, whether it is passenger cars or logistics vehicles, the trend of state subsidies can be clearly seen in the future is definitely a trend towards high mileage cars. And in order to make the mileage higher, in addition to the vehicle itself to improve the amount of electricity, there is no doubt that the power saving performance of the vehicle will also be more demanding.
So these new energy vehicles for the introduction of LED lights, we think it will also be a relatively strong driving force.
Trends in design of mainstream automotive lighting products LED headlamps have undergone a relatively lengthy process of technological evolution, ranging from the most traditional kerosene lamps, to halogen lamps, xenon headlights, to current LED light sources, and even higher brightness laser headlights, as well as intelligent LED headlights that have developed in recent years that combine sensors and cameras,
The headlights are constantly moving towards intelligence and improving driving safety. In response to this demand, now mainstream manufacturers have introduced matrix headlamp LED products, its light source structure is generally the LED arrangement into a matrix form, each led needs to do a separate lighting control, so that according to different road conditions to achieve shaded areas and lighting areas.
At the same time, the matrix headlamps used in the LED products in the performance of the relatively ordinary headlamp LED products are more demanding, such as led luminous flux extraction efficiency, light uniformity, overall luminous efficiency and so on, these performance standards will be further improved.
In the automotive LED application part, the dashboard can also observe some of the more obvious development trends. Early is mechanical, with stepper motor drive, and then developed to LED dashboard, relying on panel drivers and LEDs to do light, can also be based on different led colors to echo the changes in the atmosphere of the car, so the development is relatively rapid, the average size is also improving.
To the last two years, pure digital LCD dashboards, including Tesla, Audi TT, or BMW i8, have been used in these models. This dashboard shows richer and more powerful content. And some models have to use this full-digit dashboard, such as new energy cars, autonomous vehicles, and so on, because they need to display more information, such as the remaining power, current driving patterns, and so on.
So compared to traditional cars, they have a higher demand for dashboard size and PPI. Usually this small size splicing type of dashboard, the mainstream specification is probably between 3.5 inches to 10 inches.
And then progress to the large size of the merged dashboard, its size developed to 10.3 to 12.5 inches, the range of PPI is also widened, between 111 and 199 will see the emergence of products. Similar trends can be observed in the part of the central Control Panel, such as the early Traditional center console, which mainly controls broadcasting, air conditioning, and so on, relying on the setting of buttons and knobs. To the later development of the Audio-visual control Panel, is the use of a central console to integrate the control Panel, with audio and video, navigation, air conditioning and other functions. To this point, for example, the integrated central Control Panel, which is applied on Tesla, not only removes the air conditioner, the sound button, or even the car lamp switch, or the other keys and knobs are integrated on top of this panel. and connect to the network and make a phone call.
This integrated touch panel, we also see it as a major symbol of the current era of access to the car network. The trend towards the electronic and panel of the front rearview mirror is also evident, with the first integration panel function from 1990 to the rearview mirror, and the addition of navigation features by 2000. 2010 integrates Adas's advanced driving aids, such as the display of driver-assisted images such as lane offsets in the front rearview mirror. By 2016, there was a panoramic rearview mirror, which used 4-7 cars to stitch out the complete rear image with a lens. including Cadillac XT5, which uses this streaming rearview mirror on a high-matching model, also sees it as a more obvious feature of a vehicle.
It is expected that with the popularity of automotive lens technology and falling prices, the future panoramic rearview mirror is undoubtedly a mainstream direction of development.
International manufacturers of automotive revenue continued to grow, China's local manufacturers actively layout lamp industry chain Because of the high reliability of automotive led demand, the international mainstream brand is still in the monopoly market, to the global automotive led ranking, Osram, Nichia, Lumileds is continued to occupy the top three.
And these manufacturers are also reducing the backlight and lighting market applications, in turn to support the car and other niche markets, so most of the manufacturers in this part of the revenue share is continuously improved. Major manufacturers in the Chinese market for automotive led revenue has shown a relatively stable growth situation. And to the revenue development summary, now many international manufacturers are still the previous market, that is, the original supply chain services, relatively speaking, mainland China and Taiwan manufacturers are borrowed from the market, is the replacement and modification of the service market, first into the supply chain, and then gradually increase the scale of revenue, and then with the help of product sales reality,
As well as a breakthrough in the technical threshold, gradually into the car and the rear loading supply chain of the taillight. The figure above summarizes the layout of some major Chinese manufacturers in the headlight led supply chain in recent years. The acquisition of Anrui by the three-Ann was achieved through vertical integration from chips to headlights. Hongli and Jing Electric signed a 500 million Yuan car chip purchase agreement, and it in the subsidiary Lida Signal on the basis of the acquisition of a pre-installed market lamp Factory Yi-Good optoelectronics, is also intended to cut into the pre-installed LED market supply chain. Development Crystal after the acquisition of prey, invested in a headlight module manufacturers, the realization of vertical integration from Epitaxial chip to module, it will also want to use prey's LEDs to cut into the pre-installation market in the future. Ruifeng Although the growth in some of the car revenue in recent years has not been very significant, but also in the continuous layout.
For example, after investing in Centrino before, it acquired Zhuhai only headlights in the second half of this year, and is hoping to use these investments and acquisitions to penetrate the front supply chain of local car brands. Ledinside believes that in recent years, although the international led manufacturers in the automotive market still occupy a monopoly position, but mainland China, Taiwan manufacturers gradually to the supply chain breakthrough, as well as the upgrading of the technical level, are slowly dividing the share of the pre-installed market. It is now possible to see some manufacturers cut into the front supply chain of taillights or even small proportions of daily line lamps. So in the next few years, China's led manufacturers are expected to cut in from the local brand vehicle supply chain, and gradually in the pre-installation market to stand firm.